Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Good Quantum Computing Stocks: Felix Prehn’s Picks 2026

Felix Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, ranks the stocks he believes are worth watching now, sorted from safest to riskiest.

Key Takeaways

• Felix Prehn sorts quantum computing stocks into three risk tiers, from safest to riskiest.
• Quantum computing stocks stayed flat despite the best news the sector has ever had.
• Google, Oracle, and the US government just proved quantum computing is becoming real business.
• A new quantum computing chip design solves the technology’s biggest error problem.
• The quantum computing market could grow toward $850 billion over the next 15 years.

The Best Quantum Computing Stocks Right Now

Good quantum computing stocks are divided into three risk tiers, according to Felix Prehn. The split depends on how much could be lost at each level.

Tier one covers the safer, established companies. IBM received a billion dollars from the US government and is putting another billion of company money into a factory in Albany, New York, one that will build quantum computing chips at scale. It also bought HRL, a lab working on a chip design meant to cut down errors, something covered in more detail further down the page. Google, for its part, built the Willow chip that kicked off the current wave of quantum computing progress, and it continues spending heavily on quantum research through Google Cloud even as its main business keeps growing independently. Honeywell International has a majority stake in Quantinuum, a quantum computing company, so buying Honeywell shares gives investors a way into quantum exposure without betting everything on a company that has not proven itself yet.

Tier two covers pure play quantum computing companies that already bring in real revenue. IonQ pulled in $80 million last quarter, a 287% jump from the year before, and it still has close to $500 million in orders waiting to be filled. Rigetti Computing keeps growing its revenue and inching closer to breaking even, and unlike some competitors, it manufactures chips in-house. Felix Prehn is waiting for Rigetti’s stock price to climb back above $20 before he buys in.

Tier three covers the riskiest picks, the ones that could pay off big or lose big. Infleqtion took in $100 million from the government and builds its quantum hardware using a method that differs from IBM’s, Google’s, and IonQ’s. Xanadu builds its processors using light, rather than the tiny trapped particles most other companies rely on. It only listed on the stock market in March, and its revenue has already grown four times over since then. D-Wave Quantum, once one of Felix Prehn’s top picks, has slipped down to a smaller position on the list, and its stock, like the others here, has barely moved in three months, which the next section explains in full.

Tier three names carry real risk, the kind that could wipe out most of an investment fast, so Felix Prehn treats them as small side bets rather than a core holding.

Why Quantum Computing Stock Prices Stayed Flat For Long

The so-called good quantum computing stocks have barely moved in three months. IonQ dropped 2%. D-Wave Quantum rose by 2%. Rigetti Computing went up 6%. Every single company named here is still 45% to 70% below where it traded last October, so on paper, recent performance looks poor even with all the good news breaking around it.

Quantum computing stocks went through a wild stretch last year. They rose 800% to 1,000% in a matter of months, then fell 70% from prior highs. Such steep drops tend to scare investors off an entire industry, regardless of any good news they hear later.

New technology tends to follow a pattern that repeats itself more often than people expect. It shows up, prices shoot past what the business is actually worth, then prices crash, and everyone declares the whole idea terrible.

Railways went through it. So did the internet, which fell 90% at its lowest point before eventually going on to run a huge share of the world’s economy. Quantum computing stocks, so far, look like they might be following the same script.

What Changed For Quantum Computing Recently

Four things happened in the last three months, and together they explain why Felix Prehn now believes quantum computing has crossed over from an idea people were speculating on into an actual business, one that makes real money from paying customers.

Google’s chief executive compared quantum computing to early artificial intelligence. He said quantum computing today is roughly where artificial intelligence was five years before AI stock prices took off and adoption spread. The comparison carries some weight, mostly because it is coming from the company behind Willow, the chip that started the wave of progress in the first place.

Oracle placed a working quantum machine inside a real cloud data center. On August 11, Oracle and Quantinuum announced a deal to install a system called Helios inside one of Oracle’s US data centers. The system operates on 98 trapped ion qubits, meaning it stores and processes information using charged atoms kept in place by magnetic fields, rather than the electrical switches found in a normal computer chip. It draws just 60 kilowatts of power, compared to the 16,000 to 39,000 kilowatts a typical supercomputer needs. Electricity has become one of the biggest costs in running large computing systems, so a machine using far less power tends to get noticed by every major cloud company watching.

The US government bought stakes in nine quantum computing companies. Back in May, it put close to $2 billion into the nine companies and bought actual ownership shares instead of simply handing out grants. IBM alone received $1 billion. D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and several others each got close to $100 million. Such a move signals something clear: the government now treats quantum computing as a technology worth having a stake in, not just something to fund from the sidelines.

IonQ posted real revenue growth. Its latest earnings report showed $80 million in quarterly sales, up 287% from a year earlier, with roughly $500 million in orders still lined up. More than half of IonQ’s business now comes from outside the United States, and 60% comes from ordinary companies paying for it, not from government contracts.

Taken together, the four events show quantum computing is pulling in real money and real customers. What they do not settle, though, is whether the hardware itself works well enough yet to justify all the money.

The Chip Design Fixing Quantum Errors

Quantum computers process information using qubits, tiny units that can have two different states at once, unlike a regular computer, which only ever works with a one or a zero. The same trait that gives qubits their power also makes them fragile, and the fragility is exactly why quantum computers tend to make more mistakes than a normal computer chip.

For years, the technology faced one main criticism: bigger chips kept producing worse error rates, which made it look like a quantum computer could never get bigger and better at the same time. Google’s Willow chip flipped the pattern on its head. As researchers made the chip bigger, the error rate fell instead of climbing, which counts as a genuinely huge step forward in solving quantum computing’s error correction problem.

A lab called HRL took a different route entirely and built something called a spin qubit, a design that uses the natural spin of tiny particles rather than trapped atoms or light, and it managed to reach an error rate around 0.02%. IBM bought HRL not long after the breakthrough. Spin qubits matter for a simple reason: manufacturers can build them using the same equipment already used to make chips for ordinary phones and computers.

Most other quantum computing approaches, including the trapped ion qubits Oracle just installed, need equipment cooled to temperatures colder than deep space, which drives up cost and makes scaling a real headache. Spin qubits sidestep the cooling problem entirely, which is what turns quantum hardware from a lab curiosity into something factories could eventually produce in large numbers.

The cooling advantage is also why IBM’s factory in Albany, New York matters so much. A chip that manufacturers can build on ordinary equipment is a chip that can reach the scale real businesses need.

So the hardware itself now seems to work well enough to run inside a real data center, and the Oracle deal proves it. Market size, though, is still a separate question, one that decides whether all of it matters.

How Big Quantum Computing Could Grow

One forecast puts the quantum computing market at $850 billion, growing around 30% a year for 15 years straight. Steady, compounding growth at that pace adds up fast, which is part of why the US government, along with tech giants like Google and Oracle, is putting real resources behind quantum computing now instead of waiting to see how things play out.

The industry already has government money behind it, some of the largest technology companies in the world building on top of it, and paying customers using what it produces. The technology works well enough today that a company as cautious as Oracle is willing to install it inside data centers people rely on every day.

Still, a market worth $850 billion only ends up benefiting an investor who keeps the gains, and plenty of quantum computing investors have not managed it.

The Selling Mistake That Erased Gains

Picking good quantum computing stocks only solved half the problem last year. Felix Prehn’s original picks gained as much as 1,000%, and yet a lot of the people who bought them still ended up losing money. The reason has nothing to do with which stocks got picked and everything to do with when someone finally decided to sell.

A $10,000 investment that grew to $115,000 later took a hard hit once the sector turned and prices fell back from their peak. Most buyers never got in at the start of the run. Many instead bought in near the top, caught up in the excitement, and are now sitting on steep losses despite the original pick having been the right one all along.

The pattern keeps happening because most investors never set a rule for when to sell in the first place. They watch a stock climb, keep waiting for just a little more, and then the price drops back down before they act, and the gain shrinks or disappears while they hesitate.

Felix Prehn’s Free Quantum Research Tools

Felix Prehn put together a full research report covering every company named above, complete with the numbers, charts, and price targets behind each pick, and it is free to download at the link below.

He also built the Winston Stock App, which pulls up the same data he personally uses to evaluate quantum computing companies: revenue growth, cash reserves, insider buying activity, market cap, and analyst sentiment, all in one place. A 30-day free trial is available for anyone who wants to try it.

And for the selling problem described above, Felix Prehn runs a live seminar called When to Sell, which walks through the same rules used on Wall Street for exiting a position at the right time. It is free, hosted on Zoom, and open to people across the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is IonQ developing quantum hardware beyond its own chips?

IonQ bought SkyWater, a chip factory, and Nexus, a light-based quantum technology business, giving it more control over hardware development rather than depending on outside suppliers.

Does Rigetti Computing have research partnerships outside the United States, and who is its parent company?

Rigetti Computing has research partnerships in Taiwan and the United Kingdom. It operates independently and focuses only on quantum computing, so it has no parent company.

What does Infleqtion’s quantum systems business do?

Infleqtion builds quantum systems for navigation and timing, sold mostly to defense customers who are already using the products today, not years down the line.

Are Quantum Computing Inc or Cambridge Quantum Computing among Felix Prehn’s picks?

No. Felix Prehn’s picks are IBM, Google, Honeywell International, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, Xanadu, and D-Wave Quantum.

Do quantum computers rely on quantum physics, quantum mechanics, or machine learning?

Quantum computers draw on ideas from quantum physics and quantum mechanics to work the way they do. What a qubit is gets explained in the section above, though machine learning is not something the article gets into.

When will practical quantum computing solve real world problems with real practical applications?

Where quantum computing is already being used today is covered in the sections above. Wider, everyday use still looks to be years away.

Can quantum computing help with drug discovery, materials science, or complex optimization problems?

The article sticks to stocks, hardware, and revenue, so drug discovery and materials science fall outside what it covers. D-Wave Quantum’s method, though, is built for certain kinds of tricky math and scheduling problems.

Watch Video: If You Missed Palantir or Nvidia. This is Far Bigger.

Video published on August 14, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated read time: 9 minutes

AI Stocks Effect on Gold: Why Nvidia’s Debt Could Push Gold Higher

Gold and silver have dropped to some of the cheapest levels in about 50 years once you adjust for inflation, and almost nobody is watching closely. Felix Prehn lays out four alarming events from a single week in the stock market, connects them to a $500 billion financing deal, and explains why he recently bought a new stock position with his personal funds.

Key Takeaways

• AI stocks are building pressure which could push gold prices higher.
• Nvidia arranged a $500 billion loan deal so its customers can afford its chips.
• The cost of insuring Nvidia’s bonds against default has doubled since late May.
• Gold mining stocks trade below the value of the gold they have in the ground.
• The United States emergency oil reserve dropped to its lowest level since 1983.
• Felix Prehn’s free research report breaks down every chart and number behind this trade.

How AI Stocks Connect Directly To Gold Prices

Four separate events happened inside one week in the AI stock market. None of them looked connected at first. Nvidia arranged a $500 billion financing deal.

The cost of insuring Nvidia’s debt doubled. The largest companies in the stock market switched from buying back stock to selling it. And the United States emergency oil reserve dropped to its lowest point since 1983.

Felix Prehn firmly argues the four events are not separate stories. They are one story about the current state of the stock market: a boom built on borrowed money, with fewer resources available if something goes wrong. The next sections walk through each piece one at a time, starting with the deal central to it: Nvidia’s $500 billion loan arrangement.

Here is the simple version of why it matters for gold. The AI bubble depends largely on debt, meaning companies are making complicated deals to make growth numbers look stronger than the cash they have in their accounts. When a boom this size rests on borrowed money, any real stress in the debt tends to push governments toward printing more money to cover the damage. A government printing more money lowers the value of the dollar.

Gold and silver stay valuable in a way paper money cannot match, since nobody can print more of either metal. Felix Prehn treats gold and silver as real assets, the kind of safe haven money moves toward when booms built on borrowed money create financial stress. Higher demand for safe haven assets is part of why gold prices could climb further.

The link between borrowed AI money and the case for gold is the basis for everything else in the breakdown.

The $500 Billion Loop Behind Nvidia’s Sales Numbers

Nvidia signed loan deals worth $500 billion with six of the largest private money firms, including Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and KKR. Goldman Sachs is a major investment bank, and its involvement shows how deep into the regular banking world an AI lending loop like Nvidia’s reaches. The money from this deal doesn’t go to Nvidia. It goes to Nvidia’s customers, so they can afford to buy Nvidia’s chips.

Here’s the loop, step by step:

1. Nvidia ships chips to companies building AI infrastructure.
2. The companies need capital to pay for the chips.
3. Six large money firms lend $500 billion to the companies.
4. The firms raise much of the lending money from pension funds and life insurance funds, meaning it comes from ordinary people’s retirement money.
5. The customers pay Nvidia with the borrowed cash, and Nvidia reports it as revenue growth.

Nvidia describes its chips as durable, long-lasting assets, similar to a toll road which keeps earning steady money for decades. Felix Prehn firmly pushes back on the comparison. A toll road still works fine in 30 years. An AI chip becomes nearly worthless within about five years, because Nvidia’s newer chips make the older ones outdated almost as fast as they ship.

The six firms which arranged the deal collect their fees upfront, no matter what happens later. The real risk lands instead on the pension funds and insurance companies which supplied the money, meaning it lands directly on regular retirement accounts.

Felix Prehn compares the setup to what happened with Lucent and Nortel in the late 1990s. The two companies lent money to their customers so sales numbers looked good. They later filed some of the largest corporate bankruptcies of the decade, a financial mess which took years to clean up. The same pattern, debt hidden behind sales numbers, shows up next in the bond market.

Why Bond Traders Are Paying Double To Insure Nvidia’s Debt

The cost of insuring Nvidia’s bonds against default has doubled since late May. The insurance is called a credit default swap, and it works the same way as any other insurance: the price rises when people believe the risk of a company failing to pay its debt has gone up, and in periods of stress the price can double quickly.

Nvidia’s stock price reaches a record all-time high, and its revenue keeps growing steadily. At the same time, bond traders are paying twice as much as before to protect themselves against Nvidia defaulting, showing real concerns about how much debt is hiding behind the company’s growth.

Felix Prehn points to the widening gap as a signal worth watching closely. Bond markets show what large investors believe about risk, separate from the excitement driving the stock market. When the price of the insurance doubles while a stock trades at record highs, it tells a very different story than the one most investors are celebrating. The debt piling up around Nvidia is only one part of the picture. The next warning sign comes from a completely different corner of the stock market: the companies which used to buy back stock have stopped.

The Buyback Reversal: Stocks’ Biggest Buyer Just Became A Seller

For close to a decade, one group supported the stock market more than any other: the largest companies buying back their shares. A stock buyback works like this: a company spends money buying its shares out of the market, which reduces the number of shares available and pushes the price up.

The buying grew from about $6 billion a year in 2017 to $190 billion in 2024. In 2026, the pattern reversed completely. The same companies are now net sellers of $147 billion worth of stock, the first time in a decade the group has sold more than it bought. Felix Prehn directly ties the shift to rising AI spending: the companies now need the cash from selling stock to help pay for AI infrastructure costs.

The reversal matters to anyone holding an index fund or a 401(k), since the companies make up a large share of most of the funds and a large share of the total value of companies inside major stock indexes. The buyer which helped push the stock market higher for ten straight years has switched to selling, and the shift affects the value inside millions of retirement accounts, whether the account holder chose AI stocks directly or not.

The debt, the bond market warning, and the buyback reversal together show the risky side of the AI boom. The other side of the same boom is what it has done to gold mining stocks, which remain almost forgotten while all the money and attention have gone toward AI.

Why Gold Mining Stocks Trade Below The Value Of Their Gold

Gold mining stocks are at their cheapest valuation level in about 50 years, based on high free cash flow, meaning the actual cash a company keeps after paying its expenses. As a group, the companies generate close to 10% free cash flow, and mining currently ranks among the most profitable sectors in the S&P 500, the index made up of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Unlike other sectors chasing AI stocks, gold mining has been left behind almost entirely.

Here’s the part Felix Prehn finds most unusual: many mining companies trade below the value of the gold they already have in the ground. The market is pricing gold mining businesses well below the value of the metal underneath them.

Even so, gold mining stocks get almost no attention, since most investor focus and money have gone toward AI stocks instead. Felix Prehn mentions GDX, an index fund made up of gold mining companies, as one way to gain exposure to the sector without picking individual stocks. He’s clear mining stock prices swing up and down a lot, closely tied to the price of gold, and any investment decision needs personal research, since he is not a financial adviser.

Gold mining stocks are this cheap partly because almost every investor dollar right now is going into AI stocks instead. The AI focus has pushed the stock market to one of the most expensive levels in its history.

Today’s Stock Market Is Priced Above 1929 And The Dot-Com Peak

Felix Prehn looks at a chart combining eight ways to measure how expensive stocks are, and it shows today’s stock market priced higher than the dot-com peak of 2000 and higher than the 1929 peak before the Great Depression.

The measures include price to earnings (how much investors pay for each dollar a company earns), price to book (how much investors pay compared to what a company’s assets are worth), price to sales (how much investors pay compared to a company’s total sales), and market capitalization compared to GDP (the total value of everything the United States economy produces in a year). Based on the combined measure, the current market ranks as the most expensive in over a hundred years of American stock market history.

A large part of the valuation comes from a small group of AI companies which make up a big piece of major stock indexes. Anyone holding an index fund, a 401(k), or shares in large tech companies is already affected by the valuation level, whether they meant to or not.

A market this expensive, built this heavily on debt, shows one more indicator of risk: the country’s emergency oil supply has already been drained.

The Emergency Oil Reserve Hits A 42-Year Low

The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country’s emergency oil supply for use during a crisis, dropped to its lowest level since 1983. At its peak in 2009, the reserve had about 700 million barrels. Today it has about 300 million.

Felix Prehn directly connects the drop to the AI-driven debt covered earlier. When an economy drains its emergency reserves during good times, it has fewer resources available if something goes wrong, whether it’s a supply shock, an energy price spike, or a spike in inflation.

If a financial accident happens inside the AI lending loop already described, and the government responds the way it has for the last 20 years, it prints money to cover the damage.

A weaker dollar comes from money getting printed, and a weaker dollar has historically pushed gold prices higher. The mix of a drained oil reserve and a debt-driven boom is part of why Felix Prehn expects the risk of a recession to keep growing in the months ahead.

With all four warning signs laid out, the last question is simple: what does Felix Prehn do with his money in a market like this?

Felix Prehn’s Two Moves And Why Knowing When To Sell Matters

Felix Prehn openly shared two specific moves he made with his personal money. First, he has been watching gold mining stocks for a breakout above key moving average price lines, meaning the average price a stock has traded at over a set period, used to spot when a price trend is changing direction.

He’s waiting for a specific price level on GDX before adding to the position. Second, he bought a fund called IQLT, an international fund made up of quality companies from countries including Britain, Japan, Switzerland, Canada, and the Netherlands.

The move spreads his money across more types of investments, called a diversified portfolio, and moves him away from the AI stocks he already has through other funds.

Value stocks are shares of established companies which look cheap compared to their profits or assets. He used a chart from the Financial Times to explain his reasoning. It shows value stocks have done worse than growth stocks for ten straight years, the worst stretch on record, where growth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow sales and profits quickly.

Felix Prehn expects the pattern to reverse once the AI bubble reaches its peak, similar to what happened after the 2000 dot-com bubble, when investors moved back toward quality companies.

Picking the right stock is only half the job. The other half is knowing when to sell, whether it means taking a profit or cutting a loss before it grows worse.

Join The Live Seminar

Felix Prehn is hosting a free live seminar on Saturday covering a three-step system for deciding when to sell, at whentosell.org. His free research report, covering every chart and number above, is at felixfriends.org/goldsilver.

He was clear on one point throughout: he is not a financial adviser, he doesn’t tell people what to buy or sell, and every number or example he shares reflects his personal trades and opinions, not personalized advice for any individual reader.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Happened To Lucent And Nortel In The Late 1990s?

The two companies lent money to their customers so the customers could buy their products, which made sales numbers look good. They later filed some of the largest corporate bankruptcies of the period.

Did Felix Prehn Mention Interest Rates, The Fed, Or A Government Shutdown?

Felix Prehn didn’t discuss specific interest rates, rate cuts from the Fed, or a government shutdown in the breakdown. His broader point centers on what governments have historically done during a large financial accident: they print money.

Did Felix Prehn Cover Third Quarter Earnings Or A Specific Quarter’s Numbers?

No, the breakdown didn’t cover third quarter earnings or any single quarter’s results. It focused on the AI financing loop, bond market signals, and gold mining valuations.

What Is The Winston App Felix Prehn Mentioned?

The Winston app lets users search and filter gold mining stocks by quality score, country, and other factors. Felix Prehn offered a free 30-day trial at gogetwinston.com.

Watch Video: The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD & SILVER (& Why AI is the Trigger)

Video published on August 12, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

What Jim Rogers Told Felix Prehn About Index Funds, And Why It Matters To You

Felix Prehn interviewed Jim Rogers in the latest episode published on the Felix and Friends Youtube Channel.

The long-time investor said he has sold his shares in most countries’ stock markets, and now keeps a huge amount of cash in US dollars. In the interview, Felix Prehn asked what the decision means to American investors between 40 and 60 years of age, roughly ten years from retirement. For such individuals with money in US tech funds and index funds, what should their next move be? Read on for answers and the free report put together by Felix Prehn.

Key Takeaways

• Jim Rogers sold his stocks in most markets and now has mostly cash.
• Index fund and US stock market investors get his direct answer about staying invested.
• See exactly what the veteran investor keeps in his portfolio today.
• He explains why selling too early is better than selling too late.
• His survival rule is to stay with what you know and set your protection yourself.
• Learn where he puts money outside stocks while expecting more inflation.
• Despair in global markets is the signal he watches for the next opportunity.
• Felix Prehn and Jim Rogers give you a free downloadable report on the full conversation.

Why Jim Rogers Sold Nearly Every Stock Market

Rogers sold because share prices got dangerously high in too many places at once. He said: “At the moment, nearly every stock market in the world has had an all-time high or near an all-time high. I have basically sold most countries in the world, and I have a huge amount of cash in US dollars.”

When global markets reach historic highs and everybody is having a good time, his experience tells him to stop and ask questions. He asked, then decided the possible gain was too small for the risk of buying at record highs.

He also addressed the belief many investors have at market peaks, where they think the current cycle is different. Rogers has watched market cycles for decades, and he points out how such beliefs have caused people losses in the past.

• Railroads were once the exciting new investment for ordinary people.
• Electricity later became the most amazing thing anybody could imagine.
• Artificial intelligence is simply the newest technology to excite the crowd.

Bad times arrive periodically and always have, he said. In plain terms, another difficult period for investors is coming.

However, neither Jim Rogers nor Felix Prehn would tell you to copy them without thinking for yourself. So the next question to consider is: should I sell, too?

Should You Sell Your US Stocks And Index Funds?

In Jim Rogers’ words: “I do not want anybody to listen to me and invest in what I invest in. I want them to invest in what they themselves know.”

Felix Prehn created an imaginary 50-year-old in Ohio with a couple of hundred thousand dollars in an IRA and a 401k, mostly in index funds with some tech stocks. He then asked, what’s the next step for the man, if he’s to leave fear behind and become skilled at reading the markets?

Jim Rogers’ answer is summarized below:

• Stay with what you know, because knowledge is what keeps a person safe.
• If you’re sure things are going to be fine in the US markets, index funds are a fine way to invest.
• An index fund is a simple way to do as well as other investors in the market. Not better and not worse.

His advice stays the same for everyone: understand what you’re about to invest in, then decide for yourself.

Still, many people want to know where an investor with his history and success rate puts his money.

What Jim Rogers Keeps In His Portfolio Now

The list of asset classes he revealed to Felix Prehn Felix Prehn:

• A large amount of cash in US dollars.
• A few shares in China.
• Some shares in Uzbekistan.
• Gold.
• Silver.

One detail matters for anybody planning to copy the list. Once Mr Rogers decided the time had come to sell some of his previously-held stocks, he simply started selling and continued until almost everything was gone.

He also admitted the timing was not perfect. In his words, “I sold too soon, but I don’t mind being too soon.”

So the obvious question is whether an early exit is a mistake at all.

Why Selling Too Soon is Better Than Selling Too Late

In the interview, Mr. Rogers told Felix Prehn he has made many mistakes and hopes to live long enough to make many more. What he avoids is hanging around a party because everybody else is enjoying it. In other words, it is unwise to keep on investing only because everyone else is making money.

If you sell early, you could miss out on later gains. If you wait too long, you may lose years of retirement savings in a price drop you never planned for.

Felix Prehn made the same point: one very large mistake costs many people several years on the way to financial freedom.

Not everybody recovers from their errors, so the next major rule is about survival.

Protect Yourself. Stay With What You Know

Rogers has one rule above all others, and he repeated it several times.

“Please be attentive, be alert, and stay with what you know,” he told Felix Prehn. “I want them to invest in what they themselves know. That’s how you will be successful.”

The advice matters because of where his worst results came from.

Looking back at a long career in financial markets, most of his mistakes happened when he acted without completely understanding what he was doing. So he waits, learns more, and acts only once he understands the investment.

Some investors have automatic rules, such as selling anything down 15%. Mr. Rogers said has no such rules, but sometimes wishes he did. He also admitted waiting until the losses got too great before selling, frequently at the wrong moment.

His instruction to you is therefore not to copy him. Figure out how to protect yourself, because keeping a losing investment leads to bigger losses.

Protection also raises a fair question about the cash itself, since inflation reduces what your money can buy.

Why Jim Rogers Keeps Dollars, Gold And Silver

“For most people in the world, rightly or wrongly, in 2026, the US dollar is the safe haven,” he said. “You can tell them they’re wrong all you want to. It doesn’t matter.”

Mr. Rogers keeps dollars because almost every other investor believes the dollar is safe and he sees an opportunity in that.

When share prices drop and investors get frightened, investors sell their shares and buy US dollars instead. The buying pushes the value of the dollar up, so Mr Rogers’ cash gains value as share prices fall.

Keeping cash now has another advantage: it can buy shares again once prices have dropped to cheap levels. An investor with no spare cash cannot buy anything at the low prices, because all of his money is already locked inside shares which have lost value.

However, holding cash exposes you to inflation, and Jim Rogers said he expects more inflation ahead. His plan for that is to “keep some gold in the closet. Keep some silver under the bed.”

Gold and silver are in his plan because both metals have been worth something in every century and in every country, and he presumes both always will be.

So everything is there for a reason: the dollars are the buying money for the next collapse in share prices, and the metals protect his wealth from rising prices while he waits.

Get The Free Jim Rogers Report From Felix Prehn

Felix Prehn recorded the full conversation with Jim Rogers for investors who want the details rather than the headline. He has put together a complete explanation at no cost. Download the free report here: felixfriends.org/jim

Jim Rogers is one of the most successful investors alive. He co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973, and the fund gained over 4,000% by the time he retired at 37, while the S&P managed about 47% in the same period.

Felix Prehn is an economist and former investment banker who founded Goat Academy and co-founded the stock screening and charting tool TradeVision.io. He brings 20+ years of experience in financial markets into interviews like the one with Jim Rogers.

His free teaching is available to anybody.

• The Felix & Friends YouTube channel, with 690K+ subscribers, 2700+ videos, and 83M+ views.
• Daily market lessons, Saturday Seminars, and a masterclass, all at no charge.
• A free blog and a free compound interest calculator at goatacademy.org.
• The Felix Prehn Daily Market News podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Pocket Casts, Audacy, and Castbox.

Felix Prehn and the Goat Academy positions its teachings as education, not financial advice.

FAQs

Should Central Banks Or Even The Fed Rescue Financial Markets?

Felix Prehn asked about Japan and the US Fed opening a repo line there. People borrowed in Japan at almost zero interest, bought dollars, and invested in US assets, so rising Japanese interest rates can force them to reverse the whole arrangement. Rogers said bailing people out is not good, while accepting human beings always want rescue and usually find somebody to provide it. He added one more point: something needing a bailout is frequently an opportunity for anybody with courage and cash.

Did The Treasury Secretary Confirm All The Gold Is At Fort Knox?

The US Treasury Secretary said on television all the gold is there. Rogers replied he has learned not to believe governments most of the time, adding they’re frequently not lying; they simply don’t know.

Why Keep Shares In Emerging Markets Like Uzbekistan?

Rogers says most people couldn’t find Uzbekistan on a map. The country was once one of the most prosperous in the world, home to the ruler Tamerlane. Rogers points to its huge assets and its many large neighbors, and he suggests investors go and learn about the country.

Does The US Economy Or The National Debt Worry Veteran Investor Jim Rogers?

Neither the national debt nor the label of largest debtor nation came up in the recent interview, so he gave no view on either. He did address a wrecked economy. Germany lost a huge war in 1945, he said, and an investor who put money into Germany then would be rich now. Historically, even disasters can turn into a good time if you get it right.

What Does Investor Jim Rogers Do When A Holding Falls In The Near Term?

He has no automatic rule. Some investors sell the moment a holding drops 15%, and he admits he sometimes wishes he worked the same way. Instead he usually waits until the loss hurts too much, then sells, often at the wrong moment. Staying with a loser makes things worse, he warns, so every investor has to work out a method of protection for himself.

Watch Video: Billionaire’s Warning: I Sold EVERYTHING (Here’s Why)

Video published on August 8, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Gold Price Forecast 2026 Outlook: Price Targets From Eight Major Banks

Below are the exact numbers each major bank published, plus the simple reasons behind them.

Felix Prehn also explains why the old link between gold prices and inflation-adjusted interest rates stopped working. He also walks through the four phases of gold pricing, and points you to the free research report and the free beginner seminar where he teaches the chart pattern he uses for timing. None of it is investment advice.

Key Takeaways

• Eight major banks put numbers on gold in two weeks, from a floor near 4,000 up to 6,250.
• Your gold has gone nowhere because the price of gold moves in four phases, and the slow phase comes before the rise.
• Buying gold and earning from gold are different, and most retail investors sell at the worst possible moment.
• Gold prices no longer drop when interest rates after inflation rise, breaking a pattern of 40 years.
• Felix Prehn gives away a research report plus a free two-hour Saturday seminar built for complete beginners.

Gold Price Forecast 2026 From Eight Major Banks

Here is the actual lineup, in the banks’ figures:

• State Street: base case of 4,700 to 5,500, with a bull case up to 6,250.
• Deutsche Bank: 4,600 by year end.
• Goldman Sachs: a note titled “start nibbling”, meaning buy small amounts, with a floor of around 4,000.
• UBS: up to 5,000 by next March.
• BNP Paribas: buying back into gold, and warning of a squeeze, where buyers rush in and the price jumps.
• ANZ: advising a shift to steady buying.
• Jefferies: a separate finding on interest rates, covered further down.

Why does the agreement matter? Big banks get paid to disagree with each other. One says buy, the other says sell, and the disagreement is how markets work. So when eight of them quietly point in one direction in a single two-week period, it deserves your attention.

Deutsche Bank Calls It An Explosive Phase

Deutsche Bank described gold as being in what it calls an explosive phase. The label sounds like marketing, but it is a formal statistical test.

Put simply, the test detects when a price breaks away from every normal way of valuing it, so the usual rules stop applying.

Under Deutsche Bank’s measure, the price of gold has been in the phase since August 2024. It heated up sharply, cooled off since the peak, and still reads clearly above the danger line. In plain terms, even after the pullback you have watched, the upside potential has not gone away.

If the upward pressure is still there, why hasn’t gold prices moved significantly? The answer is the most useful part of the whole gold price forecast.

Why Gold Prices Went Nowhere: The Four Phases

The price of gold does not move in a straight line. It moves in a repeating pattern, the same four gold price phases over and over, and once you know them you can recognise where the market is.

Phase one is panic. A shock hits. Inflation fears jump, central banks cannot cut interest rates, bond yields rise, and the US dollar climbs because everyone is frightened. Higher rates and a stronger dollar are bad for gold in the short term, so right when you would expect gold prices to jump, the price drops instead. Almost everybody panic sells here.

Phase two is the shakeout. The panic slowly settles, and the price of gold drifts steadily lower for weeks or months. It is a painful period, because the average investor looks at the account, sees a loss, decides the purchase was a mistake, and sells.

Phase three is structural. Large institutional buyers arrive: central banks, whole countries, and skilled investors. Every force in the market returns, and the price of gold rises. The painful part is everyday retail investors are still waiting outside the market, too hurt by the shakeout to come back.

Phase four is new all-time highs, above the level before the crisis began. Gold reached new record prices in 1973, 1979, 1991, 2001 and 2022. The crisis was different every time, and the four phases stayed the same.

Based on what he’s seeing, Felix Prehn says gold looks to be working through the shakeout and settling into the quiet, flat stretch which comes before the structural move, not after it.

Knowing the phase you are in is one thing. Acting on it is where most people go wrong.

Gold Ownership Versus Profit From Gold Prices

Many people reading already have some physical gold. Keeping the metal and profiting from it are two very different things, as the last six months have shown.

The investors who get hurt in a setup like the current one are not the ones who never bought. They are the ones who panic sell at the wrong moment, right before the real upward move.

Professionals don’t guess which phase the market is in. They watch for a specific shape on a chart: the price stops dropping, stays on a spot, trades in a narrow range, then makes one specific form just before the structural move begins. Reading it is how they differentiate a brief bounce inside a falling market from a real change in direction.

The same technical analysis works for gold, individual stocks, or index funds. Felix Prehn says it’s the only thing he bases his investment decisions on, and the same is true for the people he knows at banks and hedge funds. He also warns: do not blindly buy because someone tells you to, because you will lose capital.

Reading the pattern answers the timing question. The next section answers a bigger one: what changed in the market to make the price of gold behave so strangely in the first place?

Gold Prices No Longer Drop When Interest Rates Rise

For about 40 years there was one reliable rule. When real interest rates went up, the price of gold went down. Always.

The logic was simple. If a government bond pays you a safe 5%, gold, one of the classic non-yielding assets, looks far less attractive. Money moves from the metal paying nothing to the bond paying a yield.

The rule no longer applies. Real interest rates have been rising steadily, and gold prices have refused to fall with them.

When a 40-year rule stops working, you want to know why, because the reason explains everything else in the market. Felix Prehn covers the full explanation in two free places, and you can get each one before you read on.

Felix Prehn’s Free Gold Report And Beginner Seminar

There are two free resources:

1. The research report. Everything covered here, plus a great deal more, is written up at felixfriends.org/gold. Download the document and follow along.
2. The Saturday seminar. Felix Prehn teaches the chart pattern live at fasttrackforbeginners.com, Saturday at 9am ET, for about two hours.

The free seminar is built purely for complete beginners, and he has never taught it in the current format before. You need no experience or brokerage account. If you already invest, the session will still be useful, because it explains the basics most self-taught investors skip, like reading a chart and sizing a purchase.

He’ll also show exactly what he is buying and looking to buy in the coming week, and why.

His biggest trading tip: learn the rules, and stop looking for hot tips. Here’s who has been buying gold while everyday savers waited.

Central Bank Buying And China’s Record Gold Demand

In a single month in 2026, China imported the equivalent of what the top 10 gold producing countries dig out in a month combined. If the same rate of imporation continues for a year, the total would reach 60% of all the gold pulled out of the ground worldwide. One country would take 60% of global supply.

Central banks as a group are buying physical gold at a record rate too, with 45 billion dollars in a single quarter, the highest quarterly figure ever recorded.

Their reason is simply about safety. A national savings account in US dollars can be frozen or sanctioned overnight, and physical gold reserves cannot. Gold depends on no other party to keep a promise, and a country can store the metal directly.

A bigger shift explains the buying. For 80 years, a country storing its national savings bought US government debt, and the dollar was the first choice. The old setup is now changing.

The Financial Times laid out the concern plainly: Washington itself has grown nervous about foreign countries using and selling their dollars. Earlier in the year, during a real crisis, countries discovered selling US debt in a panic made the crisis worse and threatened to push prices down further. Gold, though, they could sell instantly, and the sale calmed markets down.

So gold served the purpose US debt used to serve. Central bank policy is drifting from dollar dominance to dollar weakness, out of public view, but real inside the system.

Gold Supply Cannot Rise For 10 To 15 Years

A new gold mine takes 10 to 15 years to reach production, so if central banks keep buying at the current rate, fresh metal simply will not arrive in time to meet global demand. Supply stays limited for more than a decade whatever the price does.

None of the above makes a price rise certain. Gold can correct, and even the most bullish bank on the list admits a volatile, sharp drop is a real possibility inside an explosive phase.

What has changed is the structural picture, and several factors point the same way: more debt, more central bank buying, and less confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar. Every one of the conditions is at a level the market has not seen before.

Which Type Of Investor Will You Be?

There are two types of investor.

Type one sees the pullback in gold prices, decides the opportunity has passed, regrets not selling at the top, and moves on to whatever is popular the coming week.

Type two sees the identical dip, correctly recognises the shakeout, judges the structural setup as firmer than before, and buys steadily at the right moment. Nobody tries to buy at the exact bottom. The goal is to avoid getting it badly wrong.

Felix Prehn’s point is the difference has nothing to do with being clever, rich, or well connected. It comes down to understanding the rules.

He can say so plainly because the Goat Academy takes no sponsors. Nobody pays the academy to promote precious metals or to frighten you, and they turned down a board seat at a gold miner recently for the same reason. His retired Wall Street mentors have taught more than 25,000 students the rules usually reserved for people who get a job in banking.

Uncertainty is easier to handle once you know how to read the chart in front of you.

Join the live seminar at fasttrackforbeginners.com, Saturday 9am ET Get the free research report at felixfriends.org/gold

Frequently Asked Questions

Does A Middle East Or Iran Conflict Push Gold Prices Up Straight Away?

No. In the panic phase, oil prices spike and inflation rates are expected to climb, so interest rates and the dollar rise and gold dips instead. Selling during the dip is where most investors get it wrong.

Do World Gold Council Figures Drive The Forecast In The Article?

No. The gold price forecast here comes from research published by eight banks, and the central bank buying numbers can be checked on the Winston app.

Do Geopolitical Tensions Change The Long Term Gold Price Forecast?

They add to the pressure, though the four phases still govern the timing. A conflict usually pushes the price down first before the structural buying starts.

Watch Video: The UNTHINKABLE is about to happen to GOLD

Video published on August 6, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Tom Bilyeu YouTube: Felix Prehn & Tom Bilyeu on How to Protect Your Money from the Weakening Dollar

A billion-dollar entrepreneur, Tom Bilyeu, featured Felix Prehn‘s gold analysis for his 4.6 million YouTube subscribers.

You’re about to see why governments are buying gold, and what a weaker dollar means for your money and stock portfolio. Felix explains the warning signs so you can plan ahead, rather than reacting after a downturn.

Key Takeaways

• Governments are buying gold at a speed not seen in three years.
• A falling dollar quietly reduces what your money can afford.
• Savings, bonds, and stock portfolios all lose value when the dollar weakens.
• You need to write down a reason why you’re buying and keeping an asset. It’ll help you avoid selling in panic during a dip.
• Set a timeframe for every trade and every long-term investment. The timeframe decides how you read a sharp fall in prices. It could be the difference between a rushed sale and a calm decision.

Why A Billion-Dollar Entrepreneur Featured Felix Prehn’s Analysis on Gold

Why would a successful entrepreneur turn to Felix Prehn’s work over anyone else’s?

Because Felix spent years working as an investment banker. In that time, he learnt from his mentors, who are Wall Street insiders, how big institutions move money. He continues to study markets around the world every day.

Felix Prehn’s deep market knowledge and expertise are unique for two reasons:

• He explains stock markets, gold, and other investment news in plain words anyone can follow
• He gives away roughly 90% of his teaching free of charge on his YouTube channel which has 680K+ subscribers and 83M+ views.

Felix is also not pushy about his expert opinions. He never tells people what to buy, he only describes what he sees and repeats one instruction: think for yourself, because trading comes with risk and losses are possible. No wonder he has a 4.7-star average rating on TrustPilot.

In short, Tom Bilyeu found an economist who teaches hard financial topics simply. He then  decided to feature his analysis on an important topic that affects millions of regular Americans: the value of the dollar.

What A Weaker Dollar Does To Your Earnings and Savings & Investments

China recently made its biggest gold purchase in three years, while other investors were panic-selling.

Felix says the increased buying points to something worrisome: governments expect the US currency to lose value over time, so they’re trying to protect themselves by storing real gold bars in a vault, instead of relying on paper gold.

Paper gold is a promise on paper. A bank tells you it owes you gold, but you never touch the actual metal. Real gold is different. Once you store it in a vault, it’s yours, no matter what happens to the bank.

That difference matters because of what happens behind the scenes. Banks offer more paper promises than the real gold they have. If a lot of people ask for their gold at once, the bank would be unable to deliver.

Here’s what happens if the dollar truly weakens as China and a few other countries seem to be predicting. 

The number in your account stays the same, but it purchases less. On the surface, the economy might still look rich, but the money in your pocket and your bank balance would buy fewer groceries and household items as time goes on.

A falling currency also affects several parts of your finances:

• Your savings afford less than before
• Bonds return weaker profits to you
• Stock portfolios priced in the currency can lose value

Awareness of the risk is only part of the process; the other part is to create a plan ahead of any currency crash.

Have A Plan Before The Downturn

On the episode, Felix Prehn recommends writing down why you bought your assets, and what would change your mind about keeping them. Your investment time frame is also important, and you should write it down somewhere, too.

With a written plan set within a timeframe, you’ll start to operate in the market according to plan, rather than acting based on emotion. 

Someone who intends to keep an asset for a month would interpret a sharp decline as a loss. Someone saving for ten years would see the same decline as a temporary dip, keep the asset, and stay ready to buy more at a lower price if the written reason for buying has not changed.

Felix describes the warning signs and where he thinks the dollar and gold prices are heading, then provides additional information in his free training and research report. Every part of it is education rather than personal advice.

A simple way of reading the market backs up the plan. Felix

The Three Signals Felix Prehn Reads Concerning Gold

Gold hit an all-time high earlier this year, then fell about 30%. A trader who bought near the top sees a 28% loss and a problem, a saver buying for the next decade sees a 30% discount.

Central banks behave like savers. They slow down when gold is expensive and speed up when it goes on sale. The buying goes well beyond one country:

• 244 tons bought worldwide in the first quarter, above the usual pace.
• Poland, Kazakhstan, and the Czech Republic keep adding.
• Guatemala, Indonesia, and Kenya are buying for the first time ever.
• China’s largest index fund is now a gold fund, not a stock fund.

Felix Prehn points to one more figure. About 74% of central banks expect the dollar’s share of global reserves to shrink within five years. The people who print the money are stepping back from it.

So the first question is simple. Are you thinking like a trader chasing next month, or like the people who run the global financial system?

How Exposed Your Retirement Is

American households have never held more of their wealth in stocks. Over 25% of total US household net worth is tied to the market, higher than the dot-com peak and higher than 2008. The concentration goes further:

• The five biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up 30% of the whole index.
• Nearly a third of a typical 401k rides on the same five firms.
• All five are tech and AI companies.

The bet under the market looks risky. Big tech plans to spend about $700 billion on AI this year, yet 95% of companies investing in AI have not turned a profit on it. AI is real. So was the internet, and the NASDAQ still fell 78% and took 15 years to climb back.

Felix Prehn makes the risk concrete. A 401k holds about $100,000 for a typical saver in their fifties. A 78% drop would cut it to $22,000, with no recovery for 15 years. The setup today, by his read, looks worse than the year 2000.

The debt adds pressure. The US national debt has crossed $39 trillion and grows by roughly $8 billion a day, with no plan to pay it down. A portfolio priced only in dollars takes all of the strain at once.

The lesson from the two signals is the same one Felix Prehn keeps repeating. The crash itself does not ruin people. Meeting a downturn with no plan does.

What Tom Bilyeu and Felix Prehn Offer You

Tom Bilyeu and Felix Prehn share one trait: a knack for turning hard money topics into plain lessons everyday people can trust.

Tom Bilyeu interviews specialists and breaks tough subjects down for millions of viewers who want real answers. Felix Prehn teaches how markets, risk, and portfolios work on his channel Felix & Friends, plus podcasts and websites daily, so nobody feels left out of the conversation.

Side by side, the two men help you read central banks and big investors, then weigh the risks with a clear head instead of fear. No pressure to buy or sell, just the same inside knowledge big investors use to protect their money.

A new episode with both is set for the end of August 2026, and it’s worth the wait.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Topics Does the Tom Bilyeu YouTube Feature Cover?

China’s gold buying, Alexander Hamilton’s 1791 plan for a rich nation, tariffs, and factory rebuilding.

What Kind of Gold Do Governments Want?

Bars and coins, and they want to buy and keep them for decades rather than trading week to week.

Who Are the Main Players in the Gold Market?

Central banks. They now keep more gold in reserve than US dollars, a reversal of the older pattern.

Can People in China Buy Gold Through an App?

Four of China’s largest banks have stopped paper trading of precious metals. But sales of physical gold remain available.

Can Kids Understand the Ideas in the Feature?

The ideas are easy to follow: Felix Prehn uses plain words for gold, tariffs, prices etc. However, the conversation might be advanced and unsuitable for little kids.

Can Investors Request Delivery of Paper Gold?

Not always. Picture a bank keeping only 10% cash of all the money people have deposited with it. Where requests surpass the amount of cash it keeps, the bank won’t be able to meet the demands.

What Action Did the US Take on Gold in 1933?

President Roosevelt signed executive order 6102, made private gold hoarding illegal, and fixed the price at $20.67 an ounce.

Watch Video: China Just Made Its Biggest Gold Move In 3 Years — We Had To React

Video published on July 28, 2026

DISCLAIMER

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated read time: 8 minutes

FIMA Repo Facility: What Japan, The Fed, And Two Stocks Mean For You

The Federal Reserve has opened a dollar lending window, the FIMA repo facility, to foreign central banks like the Bank of Japan. Below, you’ll learn what the facility is, why it matters for your money, and the two stocks Felix Prehn is buying today. You’ll also see why keeping your money in cash could quietly cost you.

Key Takeaways

• A new Fed window lets governments borrow dollars without selling their debt.
• A foreign country’s currency defense can reach your interest rates at home.
• A shift in how money moves creates clear winners and losers.
• Cash can lose value when new dollars flood the system.
• A cheap price plus a chart breakout can flag a real opportunity.
• A deep value setup can pay you to buy a business for less than its cash.
• Rerouted ships tighten global supply and lift shipping demand.
• History repeats the same rescue pattern under different names.

What The FIMA Repo Facility Is And How It Works

The FIMA repo facility is a lending window at the Federal Reserve. FIMA stands for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities. Foreign central banks, like the Bank of Japan, use the window to raise dollars fast.

Here is how it works: a foreign central bank (like Japan’s) walks up to the window, and hands the Federal Reserve a stack of US treasury securities, which is US government debt, as collateral. The Fed gives back fresh dollars.

A day or two later, they reverse the repurchase agreement. Japan gets its treasury securities back. The Federal Reserve receives its dollars back, plus a small fee.

Think of it as a pawn shop for central banks. You pledge something valuable, you get cash, and you buy it back later. The deal is fully collateralized, so the Fed takes on almost no credit risk.

The FIMA repo was built in March 2020 during COVID. The Federal Reserve announced its permanent establishment in 2021, with transactions handled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each agreement is usually overnight, with a one-day maturity, and can be rolled over.

Access is open to foreign and other international monetary authorities with approved accounts. Only eligible central banks can use it. The fee is priced above private repo rates, so central banks use it primarily in unusual circumstances. Its stated purpose is to support the functioning of financial markets during disruptions, when markets turn illiquid. The limit is about $60 billion per foreign central bank.

Now the obvious question is: why did Japan need the window at all?

Why Japan Borrows Dollars From The Fed

Japan borrows dollars to defend the yen and manage its exchange rate risk. To get them, Japan has been selling US government debt.

Here is the problem with selling. Japan has more US treasury securities than any other foreign country. When it sells a large amount, it pushes interest rates, or yields, up in the US treasury market.

Higher rates make America’s $40 trillion debt pile more expensive to maintain, so the selling creates upward pressure on the whole treasury market.

The FIMA repo facility gives Japan a cleaner option. Instead of selling its treasury securities outright, Japan pledges them. It gets the dollars, defends the yen, and buys its debt back later.

Why does any of it affect you? Because rates in the US treasury market affect mortgages, loans, and asset prices everywhere. So a foreign country’s currency defense can impact your wallet.

The bigger story is where the dollars go next.

Why The Fed’s New Dollar Window Changes Where The Currency Goes

For decades, the global dollar funding markets worked on one simple rule. When a foreign country needed dollars, it sold US debt, and the selling created problems.

The Federal Reserve has now built a different pipe. Foreign central banks can raise dollars without selling a single bond. Felix Prehn calls it a reset, and he does not use the word lightly.

Here is why it matters to you. When the Fed builds a new way for countries to get dollars, it changes where the dollars go. More dollars in the system push up asset prices like stocks and property.

There are clear winners and losers. The Fed comes out ahead, because it gets safe collateral and charges a fee. Japan benefits too, because it defends the yen without a fire sale.

The losers are the traders betting the yen will drop in value. The new window takes away the panic they make money from. People who keep using the old method lose money. If more dollars are coming, the worst place for your money might be cash.

Why Keeping Money Loses Value When Kept as Cash

Here is the most important point: do not keep your money in cash and wait.

Every time the Federal Reserve opens a new facility and pumps dollars into the system, asset prices rise. Not because companies are suddenly worth more, but because more dollars are available to buy the same assets.

Cash gets diluted, and Felix compares it to an ice cube on the counter in summer. It looks and feels safe, yet it slowly melts away.

So what do you do instead? Follow the money. Look for where the big investors, like banks and funds, are putting money. For Felix, right now the big money is going into two specific stocks.

Why Felix Prehn Is Buying Google Now

Google trades at a price to earnings ratio of 19, its cheapest valuation in seven years. Price to earnings simply means the price compared to the profit a company makes.

A lot has happened in seven years. Google Cloud went from a money-losing side project to $12 billion a quarter, and it grows 80% year over year. Its cloud backlog, the work already booked, reached $500 billion.

Google recently signed a $15 billion deal to build a data center in Texas for Anthropic, a major AI company. The deal turns speculative AI spending into pre-sold demand, because the customer is already there.

The price has risen 14% off the lowest of the three lines, and Felix Prehn likes it, because a rising price lowers his risk. In his view, Google is leading in the AI race rather than losing to it.

The second stock is a different kind of setup, and it excites him even more.

Why The Market Could Pay You To Buy ZIM

ZIM is a shipping company most people have never heard of. Felix calls it a special situation, the kind of trade he looked for as an investment banker.

Here is the headline idea: the market could literally pay you to buy the business. It sounds impossible until you understand what’s happening.

ZIM’s market cap, the value of all its shares, is $3 billion. The company has $2.6 billion in cash, plus about $600 million earned from the business this year.

Subtract the cash and earnings from the market cap, and you get a number professionals call enterprise value. For ZIM, the figure lands at roughly minus $200 million. A negative enterprise value means the ships, routes, and contracts are priced below zero. You get the fleet, and the cash more than covers the price.

There is a second reason to look at ZIM. Hapag-Lloyd, a major shipping company from Hamburg, offered $35 cash per share for ZIM. The stock trades near $26 now, so the offer is about 35% above it.

The deal looks dead for now. ZIM is an Israeli company, the Israeli government has a golden share, and there is political opposition to a German takeover.

So the market prices ZIM as if the deal is finished. Felix bought it back in May 2025 near $17.91, and it has risen about 74% in 14 months with dividends included. One more thing helps ZIM, and it comes from a change in global shipping routes.

Why Shipping Costs Are Rising Worldwide

Shipping costs are rising because ships are being rerouted away from the Red Sea. There is conflict in the region, and ships could get attacked. Insurers will not cover the danger, so ships avoid the Suez Canal. Instead, they travel the long way around Africa.

The longer route removes about 8 to 10% of global container capacity. Normal trips from Asia and the Gulf to European ports now take far longer.

Fewer available ships plus longer routes create port congestion. Ports are overwhelmed, and delays add cost at every stop. Meanwhile, global trade volume grows about 5% a year. More goods, fewer ships, and longer routes add up to a supply squeeze.

ZIM has a young, efficient fleet, one of the best placed to capture the demand. When freight rates rise, ZIM earns more than most, because its ships carry cargo at the higher prices quickly.

If the pattern of the Fed rescuing foreign markets sounds unlikely, it already happened once before.

A 2023 Bank Rescue With The Same Pattern

In March 2023, one of the world’s largest banks, Credit Suisse, was collapsing. The Swiss government scrambled to save it.

The Federal Reserve acted with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. Major central banks issued a joint statement on coordinated action to supply US dollar liquidity.

The same weekend, the Swiss government forced Credit Suisse into a rescue merger with UBS. The Fed had sent billions of dollars to prevent the collapse.

The tool back then was called Swap Lines, a slightly different instrument from the FIMA repo. Swap Lines let major central banks temporarily raise dollars for their own banks.

The pattern is clear. When a foreign financial system is under stress, the Federal Reserve sends out large amounts of dollars. In 2023 it used swap lines; in 2026 it is the FIMA repo facility.

So the real skill is not guessing where the next problem appears. The skill is having a repeatable way to respond.

You Need A Framework, Not Stock Market Predictions

Felix’s closing point is simple. A prediction is a guess, a framework is a repeatable process you can use again and again.

He does not claim to know the future. He uses a risk-management system that tells him where to buy and, just as important, where to sell. Before buying anything, he decides in advance where he will sell it. He noted it as basic rule on Wall Street.

He also likes asymmetric bets, where the possible gain is far larger than the possible loss. He puts only a portion of his money into them, never everything.

For readers who cannot yet read a chart or spot a breakout, Felix runs a free live beginner seminar. It is on Saturday at 9 a.m. Eastern time, and no credit card is needed.

• Join us live at fasttrackforbeginners.com on Sat 9am ET
• Get your free research report at felixfriends.org/fedreset
• Get your 30 day free trial to the Winston Stock App and lock in the Founders Tier at gogetwinston.com

Frequently Asked Questions

Who can use the FIMA repo facility?

The facility is open to eligible central banks and other international monetary authorities with approved accounts at the Fed. Private companies and regular banks cannot use it.

Does the FIMA repo facility involve selling US bonds?

No. It avoids selling treasury securities outright, so it keeps US yields from rising. A central bank pledges bonds and buys them back at maturity, usually overnight.

Why did the Fed create the facility?

The stated purpose is to support the functioning of financial markets when trading dries up and buyers vanish. It also keeps exchange rate risk from pushing US yields higher.

Where are the transactions conducted?

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York runs them. The New York branch carries out the agreements for approved international monetary authorities.

How is the FIMA repo different from swap lines?

Swap lines lend dollars to a foreign central bank directly. The FIMA repo instead takes US bonds as collateral for the loan. The two tools work in different ways.

Is there a free research report on the update?

Yes. Felix put together a free companion research report covering the update and more. You can download it at no cost, with zero obligations.

Did Warren Buffett buy Google too?

Yes, Buffett bought it. Felix does not buy something just because Buffett does, since Buffett keeps his money in T-bills paying about 5%.

Watch Video: The FED Just Did the UNTHINKABLE (Global Monetary Reset Starts Now)

Video published on August 4, 2026

DISCLAIMER

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated time to read: 7 minutes

How Does The National Debt Affect The Stock Market?

The US government must pay back or replace $8 trillion of outstanding debt in the next 12 months. It’s the largest single amount ever recorded.

When the government can’t pay off old debt right away, it must borrow new money to cover it. Because interest rates are much higher today than when the debt was first borrowed, replacing it costs a lot more money. The increasing debt causes interest rates to increase, and increasing interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money, which can lower stock prices.

Felix Prehn explains the connection between the growing national debt, interest rates, and the stock market, using real numbers and documents instead of guesses.

Key Takeaways:

• An increasing national debt forces interest rates up, and increasing interest rates lower stock prices.
• Felix Prehn teaches three steps: protect your money, keep good investments, and look for ways to profit.
• The bond market shows a danger sign not seen since 2007.
• Japan selling U.S. debt makes it more expensive for the U.S. government to borrow money, and it affects your investments.
• The federal government cannot grow its way out, cut spending enough, or refuse to pay back a debt this large.
• A widely shared online post about Japan’s central bank losing its independence is false. Here are the facts.

Why Increasing National Debt Pushes Interest Rates Up

Much of the government debt was first borrowed years ago when interest rates were still low. Interest rates are much higher today, so every time the federal government replaces old debt with new debt, it pays a much larger interest. The extra cost adds tens of billions of extra dollars a year in new interest payments, on top of an annual deficit already near $2 trillion.

Increasing interest costs affect the federal budget, and they affect your money too.

When the federal government offers higher interest rates to attract buyers of treasury securities, other borrowing costs in the economy increase as well, including rates on loans and credit which businesses depend on.

When it costs companies more to borrow, they have less left for growth, hiring, and profit, and reduced profit can lower stock prices. Higher interest rates also make fixed income investments pay more compared to stocks, so some investors move money out of the stock market into treasury securities, adding more downward pressure on stock prices.

As the problem worsens, the federal government also has far less room left to manage the problem than it did in the past.

Why The Federal Government Struggles to Manage the Debt

Today, total federal debt equals about 120% of the size of the entire U.S. economy, measured by gross domestic product. Compare the figure to the early 1980s, when the Federal Reserve, under chairman Paul Volcker, raised interest rates sharply to stop high inflation. At the time, national debt equaled only about 30% of the size of the economy. The federal government had far more room to handle rising rates then than it has now.

A government facing debt at the level seen today has three basic choices when it’s time to pay back:

• grow the economy fast enough to outpace the debt
• reduce government spending
• print more money and let inflation reduce the value of the debt over time.

Felix Preh says governments rarely choose the first two options at the scale needed. That leaves the third option, and it carries direct consequences for stock prices, savings, and the price of hard assets like gold and silver.

One more event ties directly to the warning sign covered above: one of the largest foreign buyers of U.S. debt changed direction.

Why Japan Selling U.S. Debt Affects Your Investments

Japan sold $66 billion worth of U.S. government debt in a single month, to protect the value of its own currency. Japan has long been one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. treasury securities, buying U.S. debt with money borrowed cheaply at home. When Japan sells rather than buys, the U.S. government loses one of its largest sources of demand for new debt.

Fewer buyers for Treasury securities means the U.S. must offer even higher interest rates to attract the buyers it needs. With the government forced to offer higher interest rates, the mechanism covered above continues at a higher speed

A rumor spread online recently, claiming a false story about the reasons behind Japan’s shift.

The Truth Behind The Viral Rumor About Japan’s Central Bank

A rumor spread online saying Japan’s government no longer controls its own interest rates, and that the United States is secretly controlling them instead. If the rumor were true, it would mean Japan’s bond sales were a forced political move, not a financial decision, and would change how investors read the situation.

The rumor is false. Japan’s central bank raised interest rates on its own, a normal step central banks take to slow down inflation.

The rumor matters because it points investors toward the wrong reason behind Japan’s bond sales. Someone who believes the rumor might expect a political resolution, and misjudge what comes next in the stock market and the bond market.

The real reason is simpler: Japan is protecting the value of its own currency, and the decision has a side effect of pushing up the cost of U.S. borrowing. A reader who understands the real reason behind Japan’s bond sales can judge their own investments on facts, not on a rumor.

Felix Prehn breaks down a response to the entire situation in three practical steps.

Felix Prehn’s Three-Step Plan: Protect, Keep, Profit

Felix Prehn teaches three steps for handling a period like this one.

1. Protect. Know how much cash you have on hand and avoid heavy borrowing, so a sudden shock cannot force you to sell investments at the worst possible moment.
2. Keep good investments. Avoid selling quality investments in a panic during a scary headline. In 2008, people who sold at the bottom locked in their losses, while people who kept their positions saw the value recover over time.
3. Profit. Learn which assets have historically performed well when a government responds to heavy debt by printing more money. Hard assets like gold and silver, which cannot be printed, are examples covered in this piece.

The step people skip most often is the first one, and it is the step that determines whether someone can follow through on the other two. Acting out of fear rather than facts is the most common cause of losses during periods like this.

Felix Prehn’s Winston app gives students a way to follow real data on where large investors are putting their money right now.

What Felix Prehn’s Winston App Shows About Gold And Silver

Felix Prehn’s Winston app tracks institutional buying and selling activity in the gold and silver markets, using real data rather than rumors or guesses.

The app currently shows a smart money score of 74 for gold, meaning far more institutional buying than selling, a sign that large investors are already positioning for an increasing national debt and its effects.

Felix Prehn states plainly that the three steps above do not guarantee a result, and he is not a financial adviser. History shows that people who understood past situations like this one earned more money than people who reacted to fear. But remember, past performance never guarantees future results.

Get the free research report at felixfriends.org/japan.

Get a 7 day free trial to the Winston Stock App and lock in the Founders Tier at app.goatacademy.org.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Congressional Budget Office, and does it track the national debt?

The Congressional Budget Office is a federal agency that produces economic research and reports on federal spending and federal revenue. Felix Prehn’s discussion focused on real-time bond market reactions rather than the agency’s official projections.

Does an aging population affect federal spending and the national debt?

An aging population can raise government obligations tied to programs like the Social Security Administration over time. The transcript does not cover the specific factor in detail, so the point stays outside the scope of this article.

What is the difference between the debt ceiling and the debt limit Felix Prehn discussed?

The debt ceiling, also called the debt limit, is a legal limit on how much money the federal government can borrow. Felix Prehn’s discussion centered on the $8 trillion coming due for repayment or replacement, not on any debate over raising the debt ceiling.

Does tax revenue affect the national debt Felix Prehn described?

Tax revenue, also called tax receipts, is one factor in the size of the annual deficit, but the transcript did not cover tax revenue or tax breaks directly. Felix Prehn’s discussion focused on borrowing costs and interest rates instead.

Do mutual funds or pension funds hold U.S. treasury securities?

Mutual funds and pension funds are common holders of treasury securities in general, but the transcript did not cover their specific holdings. Felix Prehn’s discussion focused on Japan as a foreign holder of U.S. debt.

Does the debt ceiling involve extraordinary measures?

Extraordinary measures are steps the U.S. Treasury can use to manage spending when it nears the debt ceiling. The transcript did not go into this process. Felix Prehn’s discussion stayed focused on the $8 trillion rollover rather than the debt ceiling debate.

What does Felix Prehn mean by the phrase “the prepared get rich, the panicked get poor”?

Felix Prehn uses the phrase to describe how, in past financial crises, people who stayed calm and understood the situation earned more money, while people who panicked and made rushed decisions lost money.

Watch Video: US Panic: Japan’s Central Bank Just Collapsed!?

Video published on July 28, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated Read Time: 8 Minutes

USA And Japan Currency Intervention

Japan spent about $53 billion in a single day buying yen in the currency market to stop the Japanese currency from losing more value. For the first time in more than a decade, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York joined in.

A photo taken over US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s shoulder during a cabinet meeting showed his notepad with the words “buy Japanese yen 5 to 10 billion” written and underlined. Within 40 minutes of the news breaking, nearly a trillion dollars was wiped off US stocks. Around the same time, South Korea’s stock market had its worst month in its entire history.

Neither event happened by accident. Felix Prehn ties the connection between them together, and understanding it can help you protect your money and make better investing decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Japan and the US worked together to stop the yen from losing more value.
• The US joined Japan’s effort because a weak yen threatens US debt costs.
• A hidden trade tied to cheap yen loans caused stocks to crash.
• The intervention set off a chain reaction that wiped out a trillion dollars.
• South Korea’s market crashed harder than it did in 2008.
• Three practical steps can help protect your money from this kind of shock.

What The USA And Japan Currency Intervention Did

A currency intervention happens when a central bank buys or sells large amounts of money in the foreign exchange markets to change its price. A joint intervention means two governments do this together, and it doesn’t happen often.

For months, the Japanese yen kept weakening. At one point, the dollar-yen rate touched about 160 yen per dollar, the weakest level since 1986, 40-years ago. Currency losing value so fast means a country’s savings are worth less by the day, which is a risk for anyone holding the yen.

On Thursday, Japan’s finance ministry in Tokyo acted. It spent roughly $53 billion in a single day to buy yen and push the price back up. The move is the largest one-day yen buying intervention on record. Japanese authorities called it a response to excessive volatility rather than a fixed rate check on the dollar-yen exchange rate.

Then, the US Federal Reserve joined the effort. Instead of selling dollars, the New York Fed sold euros to buy yen.

The Japanese government and the US had not worked together closely on the yen since the 1990s, and the only other joint support since then came in 2011, after Japan’s devastating earthquake.

Knowing what the two governments did explains the “what.” The next question is why?

Why The US Broke An Old Rule To Help Japan

Japan’s government has more US Treasury bonds than any other foreign country.

When Japanese authorities need cash to defend the yen, they can raise it by selling some of the US Treasury bonds they have. If Japan, the country holding the largest amount of US debt, starts selling heavily, the price of US debt drops, and US interest rates go up.

Higher interest rates make it more expensive for the US government to manage its roughly $40 trillion in debt. Higher rates also raise the cost of things like mortgages and car loans for regular people.

The US didn’t step in purely to help Tokyo. It stepped in because a weakening yen forces Japan to sell US debt, and the chain of events raises borrowing costs for Americans.

The debt connection explains why the US cared about the yen at all. What hasn’t been explained yet is why a currency move turned into a stock market crash. It comes down to a trade most people have never heard of before now.

The Hidden Trade Behind The Yen Weakness

For years, Japan’s finance ministry and central bank kept interest rates near zero. That let global investors borrow yen almost for free.

Global investors would convert the borrowed yen into US dollars, and use the dollars to buy US assets, mainly stocks and bonds.

They paid far higher interest on those assets, sometimes seven to ten percent. The difference between what they paid to borrow and what they earned was, in effect, free money.

Traders call the setup a carry trade, and Japan makes up a large share of it in global markets. It only works over the short term and long term if the yen stays weak and cheap to borrow.

The moment yen strength returns, the loan taken out in yen becomes more expensive to pay back. A cheap loan turns into an expensive one almost overnight.

How The Intervention Triggered A Trillion Dollar Stock Drop

When a loan gets more expensive the way described above, the lender can demand repayment right away. Traders call it a margin call, and it forces the borrower to raise cash fast by selling whatever can be sold quickest.

US stocks are among the easiest assets to sell in a hurry, so traders sold them fast. As soon as market participants realized Japan and the US were working together to strengthen the yen, traders in the carry trade rushed to sell stocks at the same time to cover their loans. Close to a trillion dollars in stock value disappeared in about 40 minutes.

The dollar-yen exchange rate only moved from about 164 to 157, a modest shift, yet it caused a trillion dollars in damage to global markets. If yen strength keeps building, the likelihood of more forced selling in stocks grows, and the next drop could hit harder in the near future.

Some traders now expect Japan’s intervention to bring more excessive volatility to the currency market before conditions calm.

The US stock market wasn’t the only place that felt this shock. South Korea’s market took an even bigger hit, and for a similar reason.

Why South Korea’s Market Crashed Worse Than 2008

South Korea’s stock market, the KOSPI, fell more than 30 percent in July 2026. Only the 2008 financial crisis (23% fall) and the 1997 Asian financial crisis (27%) come close.

The selling got so intense that trading had to be halted on back-to-back days, a step never taken before in the Korean market.

Part of the drop came from investors who had borrowed heavily to bet on the same group of AI and chip stocks. When the trade turned, the borrowed money rushed out just as fast as it came in, the same pattern seen in the yen carry trade.

Korea’s crash is worth watching because its stock exchange is smaller and moves faster than the US stock exchange. It showed, ahead of time, what happens when borrowed money leaves a trade all at once.

You now understand what caused the drop in both the US and South Korea. The practical question left is what you can do with your own money if this kind of shock happens again.

3 Ways To Protect Your Money After A Currency Intervention

You now know what triggered the drop and why other markets got hit too. The implications for your money come down to three practical steps.

1. Don’t Keep Too Much Cash Beyond An Emergency Fund

Keep three to six months of expenses in cash for emergencies. Beyond that, cash investments quietly lose value to inflation over a period of time, which affects your long term financial goals and financial well being.

2. Choose Assets Built To Keep Value Under Pressure

Options include:

• Real estate
• Gold
• Stocks in companies with the pricing power to raise prices without losing customers, since companies with pricing power keep earning even when inflation rises, in many cases

Spreading your money in a broad range of asset classes such as these is a basic form of diversification, which can help manage risk when one part of the market drops.

3. Only Invest In Businesses You Understand

If you can’t explain what a company does and how it earns income in plain terms, it’s probably not the right investment choice for you. Simple, well-run companies with clear ways of earning money tend to serve a long term financial goal and steady growth better than complicated ones.

None of the steps above require guessing Japan’s next move or the timing of the market. It comes down to how you manage risk and structure your asset allocation for what’s already unfolding in markets around the world.

Learn How To Read Moments Like. Join The Masterclass

Weeks like this one show exactly why having a plan matters more than reacting to headlines. Felix Prehn walks through how professional investors think about risk and decision-making in a free masterclass.

Join for Free

The Skills That Separate Confident Investors From Everyone Else, Taught In 60 Minutes, Free.

Over 25,000 students have taken this step. It costs nothing but an hour, and it could change how you think about your money going forward.

• Join live at fasttrackforbeginners.com, Saturday 9am ET
• Get the free research report at felixfriends.org/japan
• Get a 30 day free trial of the Winston Stock App and lock in the Founders Tier at gogetwinston.com

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Japan’s finance ministry say about the reason for the intervention?

Officials pointed to excessive volatility in the currency market as the reason for the move, not a fixed dollar yen target.

How big were the bets against the yen before Japan intervened?

Hedge funds had roughly $10 billion in bets against the yen going into the week, part of why the yen buying intervention caused such a fast reaction in global markets.

Why did stocks look fine right before they dropped on Friday?

The S&P was up about 0.7 percent before the news broke. Within about 40 minutes, it had fallen to roughly minus 1.2 percent.

Does Japan intervene in the currency market on a fixed schedule?

No. Japan doesn’t step in on a set timeline. Market participants watch for potential intervention whenever the yen moves fast in either direction.

What role does the Federal Reserve usually play in foreign exchange?

The Federal Reserve can act on the US Treasury’s behalf in foreign exchange, as it did this week by selling euros to buy yen alongside Japan.

How rare is it for Japan and the US to intervene together?

Very rare. Outside the past week, the two countries last coordinated support for the yen in 2011, after Japan’s earthquake.

Do shifts in the dollar yen rate affect individual investors?

Yes. Shifts in the dollar yen rate can affect global investors indirectly through stock prices, interest rates, and the value of US assets they may already have.

Watch Video: The Global Monetary Reset Has Begun (Hint: Korea, Japan are Just the Start)

Video published on August 2, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated read time: 6 minutes

Investing Opportunity in 2026, Explained by Felix Prehn

Felix Prehn, an economist and former investment banker, says one problem lies behind all three events. You need to understand the problem to see the investment opportunities in it.

The post covers Felix Prehn’s investment strategy for current market conditions, why he built it, and the moves he’s making with his money right now.

Key Takeaways

• An investment strategy with three parts protects savings from a shrinking dollar and directs you toward companies with pricing power.
• Central banks and other large investors are buying gold and reducing their funds in crowded stocks.
• A typical index fund is now mostly a bet on ten tech companies, not a spread of different assets.
• Cash investments lose real value every year through inflation.
• A $40 trillion US government debt is the root cause of the current problem affecting your money.
• Governments have used the same approach before, after World War II, to reduce a large debt without paying it off directly.
• Big tech companies lending money to their customers contributed to the recent drop in the stock market.

Felix Prehn’s Investment Strategy For Today’s Market

Felix Prehn’s investment strategy has three parts, and none of them require a lot of capital or years of experience to start investing.

Keep some cash, but not too much. Three to six months of household bills, kept in cash investments, is enough money to cover unexpected expenses without selling an investment. Cash beyond six months of expenses loses value over time, because inflation reduces what it can purchase.

Have assets that keep value when the dollar weakens. It includes hard assets like real estate and gold, plus what Felix Prehn calls pricing-power companies: businesses that can raise prices and customers still buy from them anyway.

The plan focuses on assets that keep value. He uses the Winston app to screen for pricing-power companies. The app filters companies by a “moat” score, meaning how well a company can defend its market position and prices against competitors. A free trial of the app is available for anyone weighing their investment choices.

Buy the businesses the whole system depends on, not the company trying to win a race. The approach means buying the payment systems and exchanges every company in a sector needs, instead of betting on which individual stock will come out on top.

Felix Prehn teaches the investment strategy in more depth at a free live seminar called the 10X Summer. The seminar runs two hours at 10xsummer.com and covers the specific index fund he’s currently buying.

What Large Investors Are Doing With Their Money Right Now

Central banks, usually the most cautious investors in any market, are steadily buying gold and reducing what they have in crowded tech stocks.

Regular investors without a plan tend to do the opposite during unstable market conditions: they either panic and sell after prices have already dropped, or they do nothing while large investors buy at lower prices.

The two choices result in regular investors paying higher prices, or missing the purchase, while large investors acquire assets at lower prices.

Central banks buy gold for a specific reason: gold keeps its value even as the dollar loses value. The next section explains why the dollar keeps losing value in the first place.

How Inflation Quietly Reduces The Value Of Your Money

Inflation is usually described as prices going up. Felix Prehn describes it differently: the value of your money is going down.

The numbers in your bank account stay exactly the same, but what the money can buy goes down a little every year. In 1913, $3 bought what about $100 buys today. Meaning: the dollar has lost 97% of its buying power since then.

If most of your savings are in cash, or your income is a fixed salary, inflation is quietly reducing what the money is worth, no matter how much you manage to put aside.

Property, gold, and pricing-power companies tend to rise in value along with inflation, or faster, so they are better alternatives.

Felix Prehn expects the rising oil prices mentioned earlier to increase food, delivery, and rent costs over the coming months. Those cost increases add more pressure on cash and fixed salaries.

The $40 Trillion Debt Behind The Inflation Problem

The US government owes $40 trillion, and interest payments alone cost roughly a billion dollars every few hours just to stop the debt from growing further.

A government owing such a large sum has three choices: cut spending, raise taxes, or let inflation quietly reduce the debt’s real value. Felix Prehn says governments consistently choose the third option. The option lets politicians avoid losing their jobs.

It’s also not a new approach. After World War II, the US owed more debt relative to the size of its economy than it does today, and the government reduced the debt over 20 years by keeping interest rates low and letting inflation lower it further.

The government’s debt is not the only source of risk to your money right now. A separate problem, building inside the stock market itself, is adding to it.

The Circular Money Problem Behind The Tech Stock Drop

The NASDAQ, the index tracking many of the largest technology companies, just had its worst July in 24 years.

Part of the reason: some of the biggest tech companies have started lending money to their customers. One major chip maker is directly helping to fund its customers’ data center projects, so the buyers can then use the funding to buy even more chips from the chipmaker.

Money moves between the same small group of companies, and once investors started asking who pays for it, confidence in the group fell, and stock prices in the technology sector dropped.

The same market drop that affected tech stocks also hit a group of companies in a different way: rising demand and rising prices, but stock prices falling anyway.

Why Memory Chip Prices Rose While The Companies Making Them Fell

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron make most of the memory chips used in phones, laptops, and data centers, and the price of them rose by almost 700%.

Data centers now use about 70% of the world’s memory chip supply, up from about 25% a few years ago, and supply hasn’t kept up with the demand.

Yet all three companies saw their stock prices fall during the recent market drop, because during a widespread market drop, investors tend to sell every holding at once. The sell-off includes businesses with genuine demand for what they make.

What The Situation Means For Your Money

A war raising oil prices, a stock market having its worst month in over two decades, and a memory chip price increase aren’t three separate problems.

They’re three results of one cause: a government managing a $40 trillion debt by letting the dollar’s value fall, at the same time a small group of companies is creating extra risk through its lending.

People who understand the cause are moving their money into property, gold, and pricing-power companies to help achieve their financial goals and manage risk.

People who don’t are left with cash and index funds concentrated in a handful of tech stocks. Their money loses value from a falling dollar, and they’re unaware.

Felix Prehn’s Goat Academy, run with a group of retired Wall Street mentors, has taught investment strategy to more than 20,000 people over the past six years. The program covers investment opportunities as they come up. A free bonus research report covering everything in the post is available at no cost at felixfriends.org/reset.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can regular investors change the system causing the problem?

Felix Prehn says protesting or switching to a different economic system doesn’t fix the underlying issue. His focus stays on deciding where to put your money within the system as it exists.

Does Felix Prehn’s investment strategy include mutual funds or bonds?

No. The strategy covers cash, gold, property, and pricing-power companies. Mutual funds and bonds aren’t part of the framework described.

Should I get investment advice from a bank or financial planner before making changes?

Felix Prehn isn’t a financial adviser and doesn’t guarantee any investment return. Consultation with a financial professional at your bank or credit union is a personal decision you’ll have to make, depending on what you hope to achieve.

Does the free research report cover more than what’s in the post?

Yes. The report at felixfriends.org/reset covers everything discussed here, plus extra detail not included in the post.

Does Felix Prehn’s strategy involve asset allocation in many asset classes?

No. Felix Prehn’s strategy sets a fixed structure in a small number of asset types, not a spread in many different asset classes.

Are actively managed funds part of Felix Prehn’s investment strategy?

No. The strategy is built around holding property, gold, and pricing-power companies, along with one specific index fund. Actively managed funds are not part of the strategy described.

Watch Video: Global Currency RESET Is Here – Here’s How I’m Investing NOW

Video published on July 30, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Impact Of Japan Raising Interest Rates On Your Stock Portfolio (Felix Prehn’s Investing Playbook)

Here is the short version of the impact of Japan raising interest rates: the cheap credit Japan sent into US stocks for decades is being pulled home, and prices drop as it leaves.

Felix Prehn founded the Goat Academy, where his retired Wall Street mentors teach more than 25,000+ regular investors the kind of institutional strategy most people never get shown. He accepts no sponsors, and below he lays out what Japan’s central bank is doing, why it puts your money at risk, and a three-phase plan to protect your portfolio and understand where the opportunities lie.

Key Takeaways

• A move on interest rates in one country can pull money out of your stocks.
• A three-phase plan helps you protect, preserve, and position your money.
• The classic 60/40 mix of stocks and government bonds may fail together now.
• The carry trade quietly props up tech stocks and retirement accounts.
• Three shifts changed the picture: a record-low currency, a benchmark rate rise, a failed intervention.
• One central bank is keeping money at home, and the change looks permanent.
• A viral legal claim about a falling currency turned out to be false.

How Japan’s Interest Rates Rise And Hit Your Portfolio

When Japan’s interest rates rise, the cheap money flowing into US tech stocks for years starts flowing back out, and as it leaves, your dollar-denominated shares drop.

The NASDAQ is on track for its worst July in 22 years, and some of the drop has reached your holdings.

So why does a move by a central bank on the far side of the world land in your account? Because a large slice of the money invested in US tech shares was borrowed in Japanese yen. Once Japan raised its benchmark interest rate, parking borrowed money in US stocks stopped paying as well, so investors began to sell stocks and pull money home.

Nobody knows the full size of the money involved, which is exactly why the pressure could get worse before it settles.

The Three-Phase Playbook To Protect And Grow Your Money

Felix gives you a plan built in three phases.

Phase One: Protect Your Money

Phase one is about protecting what you already have, and it starts by cutting your exposure to whatever gets hit hardest. Felix is clear he is not telling you to sell everything.

A carry trade unwind tends to punish positions with three traits:

• high valuations
• US tech
• funding by cheap credit

So look at each stock you have and ask two simple questions. Is the share priced for a perfect future? Was it bought with cheap money? If the answer is yes to each, it is your highest-risk holding, and trimming a little makes sense.

Do not panic sell. Move calmly and deliberately instead, and because Felix is not a financial adviser, think strategically about your unique portfolio before acting.

Next, get rid of any leverage or margin. Felix calls margin a horrible thing capable of wiping you out at the worst possible moment, and in his view the small upside is never worth the risk.

Then there is cash, which gets a bad name nowadays. Many high-yield savings accounts currently pay around 4 to 5% while you wait for the picture to clear, and cash leaves you ready to buy the moment prices drop.

Phase Two: Defend Your Value With Gold And Defensive Stocks

Phase two is about owning things able to keep their value while markets stay shaky, and gold heads Felix’s list.

Gold benefits from the exact shift under way now: a weaker US dollar, bigger price swings, and rising doubt about US assets. Demand from the world’s central banks is real too. China alone bought about 15 tons of gold in June, its largest single-month purchase in three years.

Gold has pulled back about 28% from its record high, so the price is pausing, not collapsing. Goldman Sachs has set a year-end target near 4,900, and JP Morgan a little lower near 4,500. Targets are forecasts, not promises.

Beyond gold, defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities tend to stay steady in rough conditions. They are not exciting, and Felix says the calm is the whole point; they give you something reliable while the situation plays out.

Phase Three: Position For What Comes Next

Phase three is where a crisis quietly reshapes which assets do well, and every shift traces back to a weaker dollar. As the carry trade unwinds, investors sell the US dollar to buy yen, so the dollar falls, and a falling dollar has historically tended to help four groups, though nothing is guaranteed.

1. Emerging market stocks, which usually do well when the dollar is weak. A US-listed index fund is an easy way in.
2. US multinationals like Microsoft and Netflix, which earn plenty abroad. A weaker dollar makes foreign earnings worth more once converted back, so the profit rises even when the business stays the same.
3. Currency-hedged Japan. Higher rates mean fatter margins for Japanese banks, and Japan’s economic growth is picking up at home. A hedged index fund lets you capture the recovery without taking on the currency risk.
4. Commodities such as oil, copper, and agriculture, all priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, they get cheaper for foreign buyers, demand rises, and prices follow.

There is one more, for the patient investor: the NASDAQ itself. Since 1999 it has grown around 11% a year, lived through five major bear markets, and climbed back to new highs every single time. Past performance is no guarantee of what happens next.

That said, to buy the dip, you need spare cash and a long time horizon, which is why phases one and two come first.

Why The 60/40 Portfolio Won’t Protect You Now

The classic 60/40 portfolio puts 60% of your money in stocks and 40% in government bonds, and it is meant to protect you, because normally, when stocks drop, government bonds rise to cushion the fall.

A carry trade unwind breaks the cushion. Stocks and government bonds fall together, because the same cheap Japanese money was funding stocks and bonds at once, so one shock hits financial markets on each side.

The safety net you were counting on quietly disappears. If you are staring at your portfolio with no real idea what to do next, you are in good company, and it is the precise reason Felix built a plan for a moment when stocks and government bonds drop side by side.

The Carry Trade Explained In Plain Terms

At heart, the investment strategy is simple: it involves investors borrowing cheaply in one country, then putting the money to work in higher-paying assets somewhere else.

Picture a neighbour with a full piggy bank. He lends to you at almost nothing, say 0.1% a year, so you take the money, walk it over to a savings account paying 4.5%, and pocket the difference. The cash was never yours, so the gain feels like it appeared out of nowhere.

For decades, Japan kept borrowing costs low, sometimes below zero, while the US paid far more, so the entire global financial system came to depend on the setup.

Estimates put the carry trade somewhere between 1 and 20 trillion dollars, and nobody knows the real figure.

The money is inside your retirement account right now, propping up your tech stocks and keeping American borrowing cheap. It is also now being called home.

Here is how the unwind speeds up once the Bank of Japan begins raising rates:

1. Borrowing at 1% instead of 0% shrinks the profit, so some investors begin closing their positions.
2. To close, they buy yen back and sell US assets, mostly tech stocks and government bonds.
3. The selling weakens the dollar and drags US shares lower, which pushes even more investors to sell, and the cycle feeds on itself.

The world got a preview in August 2024. The carry trade partly unwound in just a few days, and the NASDAQ dropped more than 10% in three of them. The Bank of Japan backed off then and the fear faded, but now Japan is not backing off.

The Three Shifts Behind Japan’s Big Change

Three separate shifts turned a slow worry into something happening right now.

A 40-Year Low For The Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen is now the weakest it has been against the US dollar since 1986. If you are a Japanese investor owning US stocks, selling them today hands you more yen than at any point in 40 years, which creates enormous pressure to sell US assets and bring the money home. As the yen weakened, the pull only grew stronger.

Japan Raised Its Benchmark Interest Rate To 1%

For most countries a 1% rate would mean nothing, but Japan has run a near-zero economy for decades, and even went negative for years under long-running monetary easing. So when Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0 to 1%, it landed like a jump from 0% to 10% in the US, and it rewrites the maths on everything built with cheap Japanese money.

A $70 Billion Intervention As Japan’s Central Bank Struggles

Japan’s central bank launched an intervention worth more than 70 billion dollars between April and May to prop the yen up, and the currency is still at a 40-year low. Japan’s central bank struggles to reverse a drop of such size, because a currency pushed so far out of line is not fixed by throwing money at it. The yen kept dropping further.

Why Japan Is Turning Off The Free Money Tap

Japan is deliberately keeping its money at home. Its banks are tightening lending to foreign borrowers, because the economy has changed for the better. Japan now has inflation, loan growth, healthier business activity, and improved business sentiment, so it no longer needs to export cheap credit to the rest of the world.

Instead, Japan wants more money funding its recovery at home. Its pension funds and insurance companies, long among the biggest buyers of US debt, are finding higher yen-denominated yields on Japanese government bonds, so they are purchasing government bonds domestically and pulling money back rather than chasing American returns.

The free money tap, in other words, is being shut off. Once Japan stops being the world’s piggy bank, everyone else has to raise the money somewhere pricier, which raises costs abroad.

The Viral “Article 589” Myth About The Japanese Yen

You may have run into a viral claim about “article 589” of Japan’s commercial code, described online as a secret legal weapon capable of forcing every carry trade loan to be recalled overnight. Felix checked it himself, and the claim is simply false.

Article 589 covers passenger transportation. It has nothing to do with banking, interest rates, or the carry trade at all.

Never forget, acting on false viral claims is how people lose money.

The Bottom Line

So here is the whole picture in a breath. The Japanese yen is at a 40-year low, the Bank of Japan is raising interest rates for the first time in three decades, and Japanese banks are pulling cheap money back home.

Trillions in carry trade money heading back to Japan puts real pressure on US tech stocks, and the pressure ripples through global markets, which is why the NASDAQ is having its worst July in 22 years. The 60/40 portfolio will not save you the way it used to, while a weaker US dollar quietly helps gold, emerging markets, commodities, and multinationals.

The people who stay steady in a sharp market drop are rarely the ones who panic. They tend to be the ones who understand the mechanics and act before the crowd notices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why Did Japan Keep Rates Near Zero For So Long?

After Japan’s economic bubble burst, years of falling prices and weak demand kept the country near zero, and it even went negative under long-running monetary easing, unlike most other central banks. Felix does not fault the Bank of Japan for not raising rates earlier, debate any earlier plan for rates to rise moderately, or tie the move to whether the economy contracted or japan’s population has begun declining. His point is simpler: the near-zero era has ended and inflation is back.

How Does Japan’s Central Bank Manage Spiking Inflation?

Japan’s central bank first spent more than 70 billion dollars to prop up the yen, and the effort failed. A rise in the benchmark interest rate to 1% is the stronger lever, one central banks use to counter spiking inflation at home.

Can A Weaker Yen Accelerate Inflation And Squeeze Household Budgets?

A weak yen makes imported food and goods pricier, which can push inflation higher and squeeze household budgets. Felix confirms Japan now has inflation after decades without it, one reason its central bank raised rates. The playbook stays on the carry trade and the yen, not on grocery bills.

As Slowing Economies Recover Momentum, Do Low Rates Create Jobs And Lift Business Activity?

Cheap money can help slowing economies recover momentum, and lower rates are one tool used to create jobs and lift business activity. Felix documents Japan’s turn: loan growth, healthier business activity, and improved business sentiment. The recovery at home is why its central bank stopped exporting cheap credit.

Where Can I Get More Detail On The Impact Of Japan Raising Interest Rates?

Felix has a free research report on the Japan situation at felixfriends.org/japan. He also runs a free live seminar at 10xsummer.com, where he shares his rules and the stocks he plans to buy, with no replay.

Watch Video: US Panic: Japan’s Currency Just Exploded [Hint: Gold]

Video published on July 26, 2026

Disclaimer

The content on the website is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute and should not be construed as financial or investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. The content is not personalized or tailored to a specific person or group of persons, nor to their personal investment or financial needs. You should consult a financial adviser or other investment professional authorized to provide investment advice. Investing comes with risks, including the risk of loss. Presentations of trades made by Goat Academy or its personnel are not a guarantee that any investment decision made by a student will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.